The Economist: America is easing chip-export controls at exactly the wrong time

In the past six months, China has made remarkable strides in artificial intelligence, unveiling three advanced AI models in July alone that rival or surpass the best American counterparts. This rapid progress highlights the intensifying global AI race with significant geopolitical stakes.

The US had imposed chip-export controls to slow China's AI advancements, aiming to maintain technological and military superiority. These restrictions targeted advanced semiconductor sales critical for developing cutting-edge AI systems, effectively hindering China’s progress.

However, the US is now easing these chip-export controls at a time when China’s AI capabilities are accelerating rapidly. This policy shift risks undermining America’s strategic advantage in AI, potentially enabling China to close the gap or even surpass US technology leadership.

The race for superintelligence is not merely commercial but also military. The first country to achieve AI that outperforms humans in all cognitive tasks could gain unprecedented defense capabilities, making the timing of export control relaxation particularly concerning.

Maintaining strict chip-export controls is crucial because advanced semiconductors are the backbone of AI development. Relaxing these controls could inadvertently empower China’s AI labs, which have demonstrated they can quickly leverage new technology to produce world-class AI models.

This situation can be compared to a competitive sports race where one runner is gaining ground rapidly. Easing restrictions now is like removing hurdles for the competitor just as they are about to overtake, diminishing the lead and increasing the risk of losing the race.

In summary, while easing chip-export controls may have economic or diplomatic motivations, the current geopolitical and technological context suggests it is ill-timed. Preserving these controls is vital to sustaining US leadership in AI and safeguarding national security interests.