Lenny's Podcast: Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour

SEO and traditional growth channels are saturated and declining, making it harder for startups and companies to gain traction. The next big opportunity lies in new distribution platforms, with ChatGPT predicted to be the frontrunner.

New distribution platforms follow a four-step cycle: market conditions met, moat identification, platform opening with third-party integrations, and platform closing for control and monetization. Understanding this cycle is key to winning.

Facebook's platform boom exemplifies this cycle: early competition, building a moat via the friend graph, opening to developers with incentives, then gradually closing down organic distribution to monetize and control.

Google and mobile platforms like iOS followed similar patterns, initially offering open ecosystems to developers and users, then restricting access and pushing paid mechanisms to sustain growth and fend off disruption.

ChatGPT currently leads in retention and engagement due to its focus on context and memory, which creates a powerful moat. Signals show it is preparing to launch a third-party platform, offering new distribution and monetization opportunities.

The AI distribution wave will spawn multiple niche platforms alongside major players like ChatGPT. Startups should analyze their audience and product fit to decide where to focus their efforts for maximum impact.

The AI agent economy offers new monetization models based on outcome-based pricing, enabling autonomous tools to deliver measurable ROI, which could disrupt traditional software pricing structures.

Timing is critical: the next six months are expected to see major developments in AI platform openings, preferred partnerships, and monetization strategies. Early movers will gain significant advantages.

Startups must place focused bets on emerging platforms like ChatGPT to capture growth before incumbents dominate. Late-stage companies can diversify bets, but startups need to go all in to succeed in this competitive environment.

Companies like HubSpot are integrating deeply with ChatGPT despite risks, recognizing that customer expectations will shift and competitors will adopt these platforms, making it a prisoner's dilemma to opt out.

Choosing the right platform to bet on involves evaluating user retention, engagement depth, monetization potential, value exchange, and scale. These criteria help companies navigate the emerging AI distribution landscape.

Reforge has evolved from teaching growth strategies to building AI-native SaaS products that help teams implement insights, reflecting the shift from knowledge to actionable tools in AI adoption.

Successful AI adoption requires hard constraints, clear ownership, incentives, and sometimes tough decisions like exiting employees who resist change. Companies embracing these principles see greater transformation and productivity gains.

There is often a disconnect between executive AI ambitions and actual adoption on the ground. CEOs must engage closely with teams to understand and accelerate AI integration effectively.